IMF raises Saudi Arabia’s 2027 growth forecast to 7.9%

IMF revises Saudi growth outlook

IMF has raised its 2027 growth forecast for Saudi Arabia to 7.9 percent, up from 5.5 percent projected last July, according to its October 2026 World Economic Outlook report.

According to the same report, the update translates to a rise of 2.4 percentage points.

The report also lowered the outlook for 2026, forecasting a contraction of 3.3 percent instead of the previously expected growth of 1.7 percent.

Inflation and global economic context

The IMF said the Saudi economy shows greater resilience to regional geopolitical tensions than some peers, citing diversified energy export routes that cushion supply‑chain and transport disruptions.

It projected that inflation will ease to 1.9 percent in 2026, down from 2.0 percent in 2025, before picking up to 2.2 percent in 2027.

The fund also expects regional economic activity to improve in 2027 as production, exports and logistics return to normal levels.

On the global stage, the IMF anticipates growth slowing to 3.1 percent in 2026 from 3.5 percent in 2025, then rising to 3.4 percent in 2027, amid lingering effects of energy‑market disturbances.

It warned that trade tensions and supply‑chain disruptions remain a risk to the outlook, but noted that improving conditions and the normalisation of transport flows should support activity in 2027.

Ministry of Finance budget projections

In its preliminary statement for the 2027 budget, the Saudi Ministry of Finance forecast real GDP growth of 12.8 percent for the coming year and 3.9 percent for 2028.

For the current year, the ministry expects revenues to reach SAR1.19 trillion and expenditures to amount to SAR1.43 trillion, leaving a deficit of SAR245 billion.